The Golden State Warriors have a chance to end their first-round series with the Houston Rockets on Friday night, but they are coming off a Game 5 loss in Houston where they fell behind big early and were never able to recover.
This young Houston team has been scrappy in this series, and it’s aiming to become just the 14th team in NBA history to come back from a 3-1 deficit in a series. With Game 7 looming – and it would be in Houston – the Rockets have a chance to put some serious pressure on Golden State with a win tonight.
That being said, oddsmakers have set the Warriors as favorites on Friday night as they aim to wrap things up at home. The only positive to take away from the Warriors’ putrid Game 5 showing is that Steve Kerr was able to rest Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler, as they both played less than 26 minutes in the game.
Does that help Golden State at home in a close out game?
I believe it will, and I have a pick for a side as part of today’s best bets. Plus, Steph Curry and Jalen Green are worth a look in the prop market for bettors in what may be the series finale.
Here’s a full breakdown of my picks for May 2.
NBA Best Bets Record to Date2024-25 season record: 242-232-4 (-3.52 units)OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1252-1177-26 (+34.57 units)
NBA Best Bets Today
Golden State Warriors-Steph Curry Parlay (-121) – 0.5 unitJalen Green UNDER 15.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unitGolden State Warriors-Steph Curry Parlay (-121) – 0.5 unitGolden State Warriors MoneylineSteph Curry 20+ Points
Golden State Warriors Moneyline
Game 5 was ugly – there’s no two ways about it – but Golden State is 2-0 at home in this series and is a veteran team that I’m buying will bounce back at home in Game 6.
As good as Houston looked in both of its wins in this series, the Rockets have still struggled shooting the ball overall, relying heavily on offensive rebounding to keep them in games.
Curry struggled mightily in Game 5, turning the ball over three times in less than 24 minutes, but I have a hard time fading him and Butler – at home – in a close out game. The Warriors have shown time and time again that they will win the clutch-time moments in this series, and the Rockets finished the regular season with the worst clutch-time field goal percentage in the NBA.
If Houston is going to win his game, it almost needs to be a rout, as the team’s half-court offense has really struggled in this matchup.
These teams are right next to each other in net and offensive rating in this series, but the experience of the Warriors is hard to overlook in this matchup. There’s a reason more than 95 percent of teams win after going 3-1 in a series. It’s extremely hard to beat a team three times in a row when trailing in a series.
I think Golden State gets it done tonight.
Steph Curry 20+ Points
To go along with this Warriors moneyline pick (since nearly every Warriors win in this matchup comes down to the wire), I’m betting on Curry to bounce back and score 20 or more points in Game 6.
Curry has been held to 17 and 13 points in his last two games, but he did score 20 or more points in each of his first three games in the series.
The usage is always going to be there for the former Final MVP, as he’s taken at least 12 shots and eight 3-pointers in every game. Even though Curry played under 24 minutes in Game 5, he still finished with 13 points on 12 field goal attempts.
I expect his usage to be much higher on Friday night, and he finished the regular season averaging 24.5 points per game. As good as the Houston defense has been at times, Curry is an elite playoff performer that should bounce back home, where he scored 36 points in Game 3.
Jalen Green UNDER 15.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit
It’s been a rough series for Houston guard Jalen Green, as he’s only had one game where he’s looked like himself, scoring 38 points in Game 2.
Green averaged 21.0 points per game in the regular season, but he’s scored less than 10 points in three games in this series, failing to clear 15.5 points on four occasions.
In fact, outside of his 38-point game in Game 2, Green has just 35 total points in the rest of the series. Not great.
On top of that, Ime Udoka has cut Green’s minutes, playing him less than 28 minutes in each of the last two games. Prior to that, he had played 30 or more minutes in each of the first three games in this matchup.
Overall, Green is shooting just 38.8 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from deep in this series. He’s impossible to trust at this number given how bad he’s looked in the four games that he’s scored 11 or fewer points. I’ll fade him in Game 6.